Akis Theofilatos has successfully defended his PhD thesis titled: An
advanced multi-faceted statistical analysis of accident probability and
severity exploiting high resolution traffic and weather
data. This PhD thesis was carried out at the Department of Transportation Planning and Engineering at
the School of Civil Engineering of the National Technical University of Athens under the supervision of Prof. George Yannis.
The objective of this PhD thesis
is the investigation of accident probability and severity exploiting
high resolution traffic and weather data from
urban roads and motorways, collected on a real-time basis, with specific
focus on Powered-Two-Wheelers. For that purpose, an advanced mesoscopic
multi-faceted statistical analysis was conducted in order to expand
previous road safety work and contribute to the further understanding of
the
complexity of accident probability and severity. Linear and non-linear
models were developed on the basis of 6-year accident data from urban
roads as
well as an urban motorway in Greater Athens area (Attica Tollway).
Empirical findings indicate that high resolution traffic and weather
data are
capable of opening new dimensions in accident analysis in urban roads
and urban motorways. The multi-faceted statistical analysis conducted in
the
thesis has revealed a consistent and strong impact of traffic parameters
on accident probability and severity. It is interesting that weather
parameters were not found to influence accident probability and severity
when linear relationships are considered, however, the application of
cusp catastrophe models demonstrated that it is likely that even small traffic and weather changes may have a critical impact on road safety
in urban roads as sudden transitions from safe to unsafe conditions (and vice versa) may occur, especially for PTW traffic. 
Πηγή: Ε.Μ.Π
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